An early indication of the impact of Brexit

By Shiona Davies

4 in 10 businesses currently more pessimistic about the economy - An early indication of the impact of Brexit from the Business Omnibus

Since the EU referendum, barely a day has gone by without some new headline about the financial and political impact, but what might it mean to the legion of businesses with a turnover of £1m or more that contribute so much to the economy?

Brexit Data

The initial findings from post-Brexit interviews with 200 such SMEs on the Business Omnibus (asked in conjunction with Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking for the “Business Barometer” report) show that:

  • 41% are now more pessimistic about the economy generally than they were 3 months ago.
    • This is a marked increase from the first half of 2016, when around 20% of such businesses felt more pessimistic, while in the months around the election in May last year the figure was just 10%
  • 30% are now more optimistic about the economy generally than they were 3 months ago.
    • Again, this is in marked contrast to both the first half of the year, when around half of such businesses felt more optimistic about the economy, and the months around the election in May last year when 7 in 10 felt more optimistic

If there is some comfort to be taken from this, it might be that the increase in pessimism is amongst those who are feeling “a bit more pessimistic” rather than “a lot more pessimistic” and that 29% of SMEs feel no different to how they felt three months ago.

It is, of course, early days and as the dust starts to settle and negotiations begin there will be undoubtedly further need to ask SMEs more generally how they are feeling and how their plans have been affected. If you would like to place your own questions on this, or any topic on the Business Opinion Omnibus then please get in touch with Annette White (annette.white@bdrc-continental.com / 07854 146792)

Read the full Lloyds Business Barometer report at lloydsbankinggroup.com.

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